Recent Trends in Heat-Related Mortality in the United States: An Update
through 2018
Abstract
In recent decades, there is a broad consensus in the literature that
heat-related mortality overall has declined relative to the magnitude of
the heat event. This said, as society is aging and the climate is
warming, it is uncertain that this trajectory can be sustained moving
forward, particularly as historically rare events become more common. To
explore more recent trends, using a recently extended data set, we
explored trends in anomalous mortality associated with extreme heat
event days for the period 1975-2018 across the largest 107 metropolitan
areas of the United States. We defined heat using an excess heat factor,
and once events were identified, used a distributed-lag nonlinear model
(DLNM) to assess mortality response over a cumulative 10-day period. In
addition to total mortality, we also assessed subsets of those 65+ and
45-64, each of which were subdivided by sex. Results indicate that,
overall, heat-related mortality associated with any given heat event day
is decreasing. The most substantive decreases in mortality are those 65
and older, which may be associated with greater awareness as well as
that population being the target of most intervention systems. Indeed,
in many locations heat-related mortality among women 65 and older is no
longer statistically significant. In contrast, while overall rates are
lower, such trends are not seen in those aged 45-64. In particular,
there is an increase in mortality among men 45–64 of 11.3 deaths per
year across the US, most concentrated in southern and southwestern US
cities. Overall, however, the general decreases in heat related
mortality are being offset somewhat by the increase in heat event days,
particularly since 2010. Given the impacts of the heat events since 2018
over the US West in particular, it is clear that heat-related mortality
is not something confined to the past.