Mixed layer depth seasonality modulates summertime SST variability in
the Southern Ocean
Abstract
In recent years, the Southern Ocean has experienced unprecedented
surface warming and sea ice loss—a stark reversal of sea ice expansion
and surface cooling trends that prevailed over preceding decades. The
most dramatic changes occurred in the austral spring of 2016 when
Antarctic sea-ice extent (SIE) reached a record minimum as sea surface
temperatures (SST) climbed to a near-record high. In late 2019, another
circumpolar surface warming event spanned the Southern Ocean, albeit
with no appreciable decline in Antarctic SIE. A mixed layer heat budget
analysis reveals that these recent circumpolar surface warming events
were triggered by a weakening of the circumpolar westerlies, which
decreased northward Ekman transport and accelerated the seasonal
shoaling of the mixed layer. The latter effect amplified the surface
warming effect of air-sea heat fluxes during months of peak solar
insolation. More generally, summertime SST across the Southern Ocean is
sensitive to the timing of the springtime shoaling of the mixed layer,
which is controlled by the strength and temporal variance of the
circumpolar westerlies. An examination of the CESM1 large ensemble
demonstrates that these recent circumpolar warming events are consistent
with the internal variability associated with the Southern Annual Mode
(SAM), whereby negative SAM in austral spring favors shallower mixed
layers and anomalously high summertime SST. Thus, future Southern Ocean
surface warming extremes will depend on the evolution of regional mixed
layer depths and interannual SAM variability.