Abstract
This paper presents some pre-earthquake and coseismic water-level and
stream-flow changes observed in Japan and Taiwan. The results suggest
that: (1) Hydrological precursors do occur; (2) they can be observed at
a relatively few sensitive sites; (3) these “sensitive” sites
consistently show coseismic changes; (4) the mechanisms of these
precursors can be understood, if crustal heterogeneity and
pre-earthquake slow-slip events are included in their mechanism
consideration. In Japan, the monitored well was sensitive, because it
tapped a permeable aquifer connected to a nearby fault, which was under
a hydraulic –pressure gradient caused by pumping activity in an
underground gallery on the other side of the fault. Also, the fault was
in a near-critical condition, such that leakage could be caused by a
small crustal disturbance, such as seismic shaking, in the case of
coseismic changes, or a stress increment, in the case of precursory
changes. In Taiwan, both the sensitive well and the stream gauge were
located on the hanging wall of the seismogenic fault of the
magnitude-7.6 Chi-Chi earthquake in 1999. The hanging wall probably
bulged before the earthquake, causing opening up of fractures along some
secondary faults, and allowing stored groundwater to flow down to the
monitored stream and caused the observed pre-earthquake stream-flow
increase. The continued fracture-opening process toward greater depth
then caused down-flow of water into greater depth of the crust and
triggered the occurrence of slow-slip events, which propagated down-dip
to where these faults met the seismogenic fault and caused slow-slip
events to propagate up-dip the seismogenic fault toward the hypocenter,
triggering the earthquake and the observed water-level precursor at a
well located near the tip of the wall.