Process-based climate model development harnessing machine learning: I.
a calibration tool for parameterization improvement
Abstract
The development of parameterizations is a major task in the development
of weather and climate models. Model improvement has been slow in the
past decades, due to the difficulty of encompassing key physical
processes into parameterizations, but also of calibrating or
â\euro˜tuningâ\euro™ the many free parameters involved in their
formulation. Machine learning techniques have been recently used for
speeding up the development process. While some studies propose to
replace parameterizations by data-driven neural networks, we rather
advocate that keeping physical parameterizations is key for the
reliability of climate projections. In this paper we propose to harness
machine learning to improve physical parameterizations. In particular we
use Gaussian process-based methods from uncertainty quantification to
calibrate the model free parameters at a process level. To achieve this,
we focus on the comparison of single-column simulations and reference
large-eddy simulations over multiple boundary-layer cases. Our method
returns all values of the free parameters consistent with the references
and any structural uncertainties, allowing a reduced domain of
acceptable values to be considered when tuning the 3D global model. This
tool allows to disentangle deficiencies due to poor parameter
calibration from intrinsic limits rooted in the parameterization
formulations. This paper describes the tool and the philosophy of tuning
in single-column mode. Part 2 shows how the results from our
process-based tuning can help in the 3D global model tuning.