Correlation Between Cloud Adjustments and Cloud Feedbacks Responsible
for Larger Range of Climate Sensitivities in CMIP6
Abstract
While the higher mean Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) in CMIP6 has
been attributed to more positive cloud feedbacks, it is unclear what
causes the greater range of ECS values across CMIP6 models compared to
CMIP5. Here we investigate the relationship between radiative forcing
and cloud feedbacks across the two model generations to explain the very
high ECS values in some CMIP6 models. The relationship is sensitive to
the definition of the forcing, particularly in CMIP6, but fixed-SST
simulations suggest the shortwave cloud feedback
($\lambda_{SW, cl}$) is anti-correlated with the
forcing in CMIP5 and weakly positively correlated with the forcing in
CMIP6. These relationships reflect the cloud adjustment to the forcing,
which is anti-correlated with $\lambda_{SW, cl}$ in
CMIP5 and positively correlated in CMIP6. Although we are unable to
identify a systematic change across the model generations, we do show
that modifications to the land components of climate models are not
responsible for the change in the relationship between cloud adjustments
and cloud feedbacks, and that cloud adjustments are generally driven by
low and, especially mid-level clouds. Moreover, models derived from the
MOHC and NCAR modeling centers seem to be responsible for much of the
trend between CMIP5 and CMIP6. Our analysis is severely limited by the
available simulations, highlighting the need for targeted simulations to
probe the sources of intermodel differences in cloud adjustments.