Precipitation Efficiency and Climate Sensitivity (Invited Chapter for
the AGU Geophysical Monograph Series “Clouds and Climate”)
Abstract
Key Points: • The concept of precipitation efficiency is broad, and can
be related to many proposed cloud feedback mechanisms • Microphysical
precipitation efficiency of tropical clouds likely increases with
warming, but bulk precipitation efficiency and precipitation efficiency
of midlatitude clouds could decrease • The impacts of precipitation
efficiency on clouds and feedbacks deserve further study and require
better evaluation against observations A number of studies have
demonstrated strong relationships between precipitation efficiency,
particularly its changes under warming, and climate sensitivity. In this
chapter, we review the evidence for these relationships, including how
they depend on the definition of precipitation efficiency. We identify
six mechanisms by which changes in precipitation efficiency may affect
Earth’s net climate feedback, and also discuss evidence for an inverse
relationship between present-day precipitation efficiency and climate
sensitivity based on several perturbed physics ensembles. This inverse
relationship hints at the possibility of developing emergent constraints
on climate sensitivity using precipitation efficiency, though it is put
in doubt by studies varying convective entrainment rates, which have
found the opposite relationship. More work is required to refine our
understanding of the mechanisms linking changes in precipitation
efficiency to climate sensitivity and more observational data is needed
to validate model results. In particular, the precipitation efficiency
of mid-latitude clouds has been relatively understudied, but deserves
more attention in light of the importance of extratropical cloud
feedbacks for the high climate sensitivities of CMIP6 models.