Caught between extremes: Understanding human-water interactions during
drought-to-flood events in the Horn of Africa
Abstract
Disaster risks are the results of complex spatiotemporal interactions
between risk components, impacts and societal response. The complexities
of these interactions increase when multi-risk events occur in fragile
contexts characterized by ethnic conflicts, unstable governments, and
high levels of poverty, resulting in impacts that are larger than
anticipated. Yet, only few multi-risk studies explore human-environment
interactions, as most studies are hazard-focused, consider only a single
type of multi-risk interaction, and rarely account for spatiotemporal
variations of risk components. Here, we developed a step-wise, bottom-up
approach, in which a range of qualitative and semi-quantitative methods
was used iteratively to reconstruct interactions and feedback loops
between risk components and impacts of consecutive drought-to-flood
events, and explore their spatiotemporal variations. Within this
approach, we conceptualize disaster risk as a set of multiple (societal
and physical) events interacting and evolving across space and time. The
approach was applied to the 2017-2018 humanitarian crises in Kenya and
Ethiopia, where extensive flooding followed a severe drought lasting
18-24 months. The events were also accompanied by government elections,
crop pest outbreaks and ethnic conflicts. Results show that (1) the
fragile Kenyan and Ethiopian contexts further aggravated drought and
flood impacts; (2) heavy rainfall after drought led to both an increase
and decrease of the drought impacts dependent on topographic and
socio-economic conditions; (3) societal response to one hazard may
influence risk components of opposite hazards. A better understanding of
the human-water interactions that characterize multi-risk events can
support the development of effective monitoring systems and response
strategies.