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\begin{document}

\title{Land-atmosphere feedbacks reduce evaporative demand in a warming
climate: implications at local and global scales}



\author[1]{Yeonuk Kim}%
\author[2]{Monica Garcia}%
\author[1]{Mark Johnson}%
\affil[1]{University of British Columbia}%
\affil[2]{Universidad Politecnica de Madrid}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 21, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
The magnitude and extent of runoff reduction, drought intensification,
and dryland expansion under climate change are unclear and contentious.
A primary reason is disagreement between global circulation models and
current potential evaporation (PE) models for evaporative demand under
warming climatic conditions. An emerging body of research suggests that
current PE models including Penman-Monteith and Priestley-Taylor may
overestimate future evaporative demand. However, they are still widely
used for climatic impact analysis although the underlying physical
mechanisms for PE projections remain unclear. Here, we show that current
PE models diverge from observed non-water-stressed evaporation, a proxy
of evaporative demand, across site (\textgreater{}1500 flux tower site
years), watershed (\textgreater{}10,000 watershed-years), and global (25
climate models) scales. By not incorporating land-atmosphere feedback
processes, current models overestimate non-water-stressed evaporation
and its driving factors for warmer and drier conditions. To resolve
this, we introduce a land-atmosphere coupled PE model that accurately
reproduces non-water-stressed evaporation across spatiotemporal scales.
We demonstrate that terrestrial evaporative demand will increase at a
similar rate to ocean evaporation, but much slower than rates suggested
by current PE models. This finding suggests that land-atmosphere
feedbacks moderate continental drying trends. Budyko-based runoff
projections incorporating our PE model are well aligned with those from
coupled climate simulations, implying that land-atmosphere feedbacks are
key to improving predictions of climatic impacts on water resources. Our
approach provides a simple and robust way to incorporate coupled
land-atmosphere processes into water management tools.%
\end{abstract}%



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