Impact of recent warming in East Asian marginal seas on the heavy
rainfall event occurred in Kyushu Island, Japan in July 2017
Abstract
There are growing evidences that the warming marginal seas impact the
torrential rainfall events in many parts of the world. The sea surface
temperature (SST) in the East Asian marginal seas (EAMS) exhibits rapid
rise during the last decades compared to the global mean, but its impact
is still a matter of debate. Here we assess the impact of the recent
warming trend of the EAMSs on the torrential rainfall event that caused
devastating flooding and landslides in Kyushu Island located in the
western part of Japan in July 2017, using a high-resolution cloud
permitting model. The warming trend of EAMS with atmospheric warming
since 1980s increases the simulated 12-hr precipitation to 6.8%,
corresponding to approximately 10% increase per 1 K of SST rise,
consistent with the previous data analysis study. Slight increase in
heat and moisture supplies due to the warming EAMS has impacted a
conditionally unstable condition of air masses flowing into an area of
the precipitation, leading to more vigorous convective systems. Moisture
budget analysis indicates that the changes in the amount of
precipitation is not responsible for the availability of precipitable
water but the intensification of the convective system. Since the change
in precipitation amount exhibits high sensitivity to the SST trends, use
of multiple SST datasets is desirable to provide a more reliable
estimate and its uncertainty.