Time series prediction of microseismic multi-parameter in rockburst
based on deep learning
Abstract
Time series prediction involves learning existing observation data of a
parameter and predicting its future evolution, with applications in many
fields. Based on a machine/deep learning method, it is useful to predict
the evolution trend of microseismic parameters during rockburst
development. Our study explores key microseismic indices that help
describe the development process of rockbursts based on abundant
rockburst data obtained from deep underground engineering activities. On
this basis, the structure of a deep convolution neural network is
modified, and its input and output modules are improved, to realize a
univariate, multivariate input and a single-step, multi-step output.
Finally, various new models of the microseismic multi-parameters for
time series prediction are proposed, including a univariate prediction
model, a multiple parallel series model, a multiple input series model,
and a multivariate multi-step prediction model. Model training, testing,
and interpretation of the rockburst risk and a comparative analysis of
the different models are carried out for the complete process of
multiple rockburst disasters. The results show that the proposed models
can predict the evolution trends of various key characteristics during a
rockburst and ensure the timeliness and accuracy of rockburst risk
prediction. They provide a new research idea for the prediction and
early warning of rockburst disasters in deep underground and mining
engineering.