North Atlantic tropical cyclone size and storm surge reconstructions
from 1950-present
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the greatest threats to coastal
communities along the US Atlantic and Gulf coasts due to their extreme
winds, rainfall and storm surge. Analyzing historical TC climatology and
modeling TC hazards can provide valuable insight to planners and
decision makers. However, detailed TC size information is typically only
available from 1988 onward, preventing accurate wind, rainfall, and
storm surge modeling for TCs occurring earlier in the historical record.
To overcome temporally limited TC size data, we develop a database of
size estimates that are based on reanalysis data and a physics-based
model. Specifically, we utilize ERA5 reanalysis data to estimate the TC
outer size, and a physics-based TC wind model to estimate the radius of
maximum wind. We evaluate our TC size estimates using two
high-resolution wind datasets as well as Best Track information for a
wide variety of TCs. Using the estimated size information plus the TC
track and intensity, we reconstruct historical storm tides from
1950-2020 using a basin-scale hydrodynamic model and show that our
reconstructions agree well with observed peak water levels. Finally, we
demonstrate that incorporating an expanded set of historical modeled
storm tides beginning in 1950 can enhance our understanding of US
coastal hazard. Our newly developed database of TC sizes and associated
storm tides can aid in understanding North Atlantic TC climatology and
modeling TC wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazard along the US Atlantic
and Gulf coasts.