Tropical cyclone compound flood hazard assessment: from investigating
dependence to quantifying impacts
Abstract
Compound flooding, characterized by the co-occurrence of multiple flood
mechanisms, is a major threat to coastlines across the globe. Tropical
cyclones (TCs) are responsible for many compound floods due to their
storm surge and intense rainfall. Previous efforts to quantify compound
flood hazard have typically adopted statistical approaches that may be
unable to fully capture spatio-temporal dynamics between rainfall-runoff
and storm surge, which ultimately impact total water levels. In
contrast, we pose a physics driven approach that utilizes a large set of
realistic TC events and a simplified physical rainfall model and
simulates each event within a hydrodynamic model framework. We apply our
approach to investigate TC flooding in the Cape Fear River, NC. We find
TC approach angle, forward speed, and intensity are relevant for
compound flood potential, but rainfall rate and time lag between
centroid of rainfall and peak storm tide are the strongest predictors of
compounding magnitude. Neglecting rainfall underestimates 100-yr flood
depths across 28% of the floodplain, and taking the max of each hazard
modeled separately still underestimates 16% of the floodplain. We find
the main stem of the river is surge-dominated, upstream portions of
small streams and pluvial areas are rainfall-dominated, but midstream
portions of streams are compounding zones, and areas close to the
coastline are surge-dominated for lower return periods but compounding
zones for high return periods (100-yrs). Our method links joint
rainfall-surge occurrence to actual flood impacts and demonstrates how
compound flooding is distributed across coastal catchments.