Abstract
Uncertainty estimation is an important part of practical hydrogeology.
With most of the subsurface unobservable, attempts at system
characterization will invariably be incomplete. Uncertainty estimation,
then, must quantify the influence of unknown parameters, forcings, and
structural deficiencies. In this endeavour, numerical modeling
frameworks support an unparalleled degree of subsurface complexity and
its associated uncertainty. When boundary uncertainty is concerned,
however, the numerical framework can be restrictive. The interdependence
of grid discretization and the enclosing boundaries make exploring
uncertainties in their extent or nature difficult. The Analytic Element
Method (AEM) may be an interesting complement, as it is computationally
efficient, economic with its parameter count, and does not require
enclosure through finite boundaries. These properties make AEM
well-suited for comprehensive uncertainty estimation, particularly in
data-scarce settings or exploratory studies. In this study, we explore
the use of AEM for flow field uncertainty estimation, with a particular
focus on boundary uncertainty. To induce versatile, uncertain regional
flow more easily, we propose a new element based on conformal mapping.
We then include this element in a simple Python-based AEM toolbox and
benchmark it against MODFLOW. Coupling AEM with a Markov Chain Monte
Carlo (MCMC) routine using adaptive proposals, we explore its use in a
synthetic case study. We find that AEM permits efficient uncertainty
estimation for groundwater flow fields, and its analytical nature
readily permits continuing analyses which can support Lagrangian
transport modelling or the placement of numerical model boundaries.