Orographic effect on extreme precipitation statistics peaks at hourly
time scales
- Francesco Marra,
- Moshe Armon,
- Marco Borga,
- Efrat Morin
Moshe Armon
Institute of Earth Sciences, Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Author ProfileEfrat Morin
Institute of Earth Sciences, The Hebrew University of Jerusalem
Author ProfileAbstract
Orographic impact on extreme sub-daily precipitation is critical for
risk management but remains insufficiently understood due to complicated
atmosphere-orography interactions and large uncertainties. We
investigate the problem adopting a framework able to reduce
uncertainties and isolate the systematic interaction of Mediterranean
cyclones with a regular orographic barrier. The average decrease with
elevation reported for hourly extremes is found enhanced at sub-hourly
durations. Tail heaviness of 10-minute intensities is negligibly
affected by orography, suggesting self-similarity of the distributions
at the convective scale. Orography decreases the tail heaviness at
longer durations, with a maximum impact around hourly scales. These
observations are explained by an orographically-induced redistribution
of precipitation towards stratiform-like processes, and by the
succession of convective cores in multi-hour extremes. Our results imply
a breaking of scale-invariance at sub-hourly durations, with important
implications for natural hazards management in mountainous areas.