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Reappraisal of the climate impacts of ozone-depleting substances
  • +14
  • Olaf Morgenstern,
  • Fiona M. O'Connor,
  • Ben T. Thomas Johnson,
  • Guang Zeng,
  • Jane Patricia Mulcahy,
  • Jonny Williams,
  • Joao Teixeira,
  • Martine Michou,
  • Pierre Nabat,
  • Larry Wayne Horowitz,
  • Vaishali Naik,
  • Lori T. Sentman,
  • Makoto Deushi,
  • Susanne E. Bauer,
  • Kostas Tsigaridis,
  • Drew T. Shindell,
  • Douglas Edward Kinnison
Olaf Morgenstern
NIWA, NIWA

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Fiona M. O'Connor
Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre
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Ben T. Thomas Johnson
UK Met Office, UK Met Office
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Guang Zeng
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
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Jane Patricia Mulcahy
Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre
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Jonny Williams
NIWA, NIWA
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Joao Teixeira
Met Office Hadley Centre, Met Office Hadley Centre
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Martine Michou
Meteo-France, Meteo-France
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Pierre Nabat
Météo-France, Météo-France
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Larry Wayne Horowitz
GFDL/NOAA, GFDL/NOAA
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Vaishali Naik
NOAA GFDL, NOAA GFDL
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Lori T. Sentman
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
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Makoto Deushi
Meteorological Research Institute, Meteorological Research Institute
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Susanne E. Bauer
NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA
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Kostas Tsigaridis
Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, and NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
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Drew T. Shindell
Duke University, Duke University
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Douglas Edward Kinnison
NCAR/CLAS, NCAR/CLAS
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Abstract

We assess the effective radiative forcing due to ozone-depleting substances using models participating in the Aerosols and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). A large inter-model spread in this globally averaged quantity necessitates an “emergent constraint” approach whereby we link the radiative forcing to the amount of ozone depletion simulated during 1979-2000, excluding two volcanically perturbed periods. During this period ozone-depleting substances were increasing, and several merged satellite-based climatologies document the ensuing decline of total-column ozone. We use these analyses to come up with effective radiative forcing magnitudes. For all of these satellite climatologies we find an effective radiative forcing outside or on the edge of the previously published “likely” range given by the 5th Assessment Report of IPCC, implying an offsetting effect of ozone depletion and/or other atmospheric feedbacks of -0.4 to -0.25 Wm-2, which is in absolute terms is larger than the previous best estimate of -0.15 Wm-2.
28 Oct 2020Published in Geophysical Research Letters volume 47 issue 20. 10.1029/2020GL088295