An Assessment of Machine Learning Techniques for Replicating Physical
Forcing Mechanisms in Climate Models
Abstract
Atmospheric General Circulation Models (GCMs) continue to increase in
complexity which is especially true for their computationally-demanding
physical parameterizations. This work explores whether, and how,
computationally-efficient machine learning (ML) techniques can become an
option for replacing physical parameterization schemes in GCMs. We test
this idea in a model hierarchy with NCAR’s Community Atmosphere Model
version 6 (CAM6) which is part of NCAR’s Community Earth System Model
(CESM 2.1). In particular, dry and idealized-moist CAM6 model
configurations are considered which employ simplified physical forcing
mechanisms for radiation, boundary layer mixing, surface fluxes, and
precipitation (in the moist setup). Several ML models are developed,
trained, and tested offline using CAM6 output data. The assessed ML
techniques include linear regression, random forests, and neural
networks with and without convolutional layers. Using a variety of ML
hyperparameter choices, all of the ML methods are able to capture the
general structure of the CAM6 physical forcing. However, in order to
capture the details in the physical forcing patterns, the ML
hyperparameters must be tuned. Once tuned, we compare different ML
techniques against one another in order to assess their strengths and
weaknesses. Future work will explore the online coupling of the
ML-generated physical tendencies to the CAM6 atmospheric dynamical core.