Impacts of the Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation (BSISO) on
Precipitation Extremes in Indonesia
Abstract
The relationship between boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO)
and precipitation extremes over Indonesia is investigated using
observational datasets from 30 years (1987-2016) of rain gauge
measurements and the gridded Asian Precipitation-Highly Resolved
Observational Data Integration Toward Evaluation of Water Resources
(APHRODITE) from 1998-2015. The results indicate that the frequency of
extreme precipitation events in Indonesia (defined as total
precipitation above the 95 th percentile) during extended boreal summer
(May-August) is significantly modulated by BSISO, especially over the
western and northern regions. Under the influences of BSISO1, the
probability of the precipitation extremes over Sumatra and Borneo
increases by 20-120% during phases 1 to 3, and approximately 50-80%
over the eastern part of Borneo and Sulawesi during phase 4. Under the
BSISO2, the probability of the extremes increases up to 40% over
Sumatra during phases 1 to 2 and up to 140% over the Borneo and
Sulawesi during phases 2-3. The increase in the probability of extreme
summer precipitation is associated with enhanced large-scale moisture
flux convergence and upward moisture transport induced by BSISO active
phases. These results may provide valuable information for
medium-to-extended-range prediction of summer precipitation extremes in
Indonesia.