Proper assessment of the economic risk from hazards is an important
prerequisite toward enhancing resilience and is often overlooked or
underestimated in importance. This research describes a method of
assessing risk due to extreme cold temperature, hail, lightning, and
tornado in 2050, utilizing projections from well-respected model output,
with Louisiana as a case study. Our approach improves upon previous
hazard risk assessments by considering the magnitude of the exposed
population in weighing the property loss. This makes the approach her
preferable over previous risk assessments. Furthermore, the present
research uses current model projections to estimate changes in future
conditions of the hazard presence. Finally, our use of downscaled data
to the census-block circumvents the complications of examining hazards
at the county level, particularly in cases for which population is
unevenly distributed in the county. Results suggest that extreme cold
temperature and tornado are by far the costliest of the four hazards in
terms of property loss, although tornado loss is inherently difficult to
project due to the unpredictable nature of individual tornado paths.
Both extreme temperatures and hail are projected to decrease in loss as
temperatures warm, especially in the New Orleans area, where population
may decrease. The lightning hazard, while small and likely
underestimated due to assignment of lightning damage to the phenomena in
which it is embedded, is projected to increase, both on an absolute and
per capita basis. Our results can assist environmental planners in
protecting life and property, while also promoting hazard resilience and
environmental, economic, and social sustainability.