The influence of non-static sea ice on Antarctic and Southern Ocean
numerical weather prediction
Abstract
Although operational weather forecasting centres are increasingly using
global coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice models to replace atmosphere-only
models for short-term (10-day) weather forecasting, the influence of sea
ice on such forecasting has yet to be fully quantified, especially in
the Southern Ocean. To address this gap, a polar-specific version of the
Weather Research and Forecasting model is implemented within a
circumpolar Antarctic domain to investigate the impact of daily updates
of sea-ice concentration on short-term weather forecasting. A
statistically-significant improvement in near-surface atmospheric
temperature and humidity is shown from +48 hours to +192 hours when
assimilating daily sea-ice concentration into the model. Improvement in
model performance is enhanced from July to September, which is the
period of late sea-ice advance. Regionally, model improvement is shown
to occur in most sea-ice regions, although the improvement is strongest
in the Ross Sea and Weddell Sea sectors. The surface heat balance also
shows remarkable improvement in outgoing radiative heat fluxes and both
sensible and latent heat fluxes after 48 hours. This research
demonstrates the non-negligible effect of including daily updates of
sea-ice concentration in numerical weather forecasting and indicates the
necessity of implementing a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice model in
operational high-latitude southern hemisphere weather forecasting.