Identifying and comparing Antarctic continental shelf water masses in
models and observations
Abstract
A wealth of new climate model simulations have recently become available
through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 (CMIP6).
Evaluation of the representation of the Antarctic ocean across CMIP6
models is critical: projections of near-ice sheet temperature change
will be used as input into sea level projections, and previous CMIP
ensembles show substantial biases with a wide inter-model and
inter-region spread. However, the ocean over the Antarctic continental
shelf remains sparsely sampled, posing challenges for model-data
comparison. Here, we assess a new clustering-based, grid-independent,
methodology to identify and compare regional water masses, focusing on
the Pacific sector of the Antarctic continental shelf. We find that
temperature is insufficient to differentiate water masses, given the
complexity and diversity of hydrographic profiles on the continental
shelf. In contrast, clustering approaches applied to World Ocean Atlas
2018 temperature and salinity profiles identify “source” and “mixed”
regimes that have a physically interpretable basis. For example,
meltwater-freshened coastal currents in the Amundsen Sea, and High
Salinity Shelf Water formation regions in the western Ross Sea, emerge
naturally from the algorithm. We compare the location and properties of
observed regimes to those found in the modern hydrographic state of the
Community Earth System Model, version 2. Although CESM2 biases can be
substantial, the locations of distinct regimes, and inter-cluster
differences in water mass properties, are relatively consistent with
observations. Differences in the locations and properties of
hydrographic regimes are consistent with those expected from missing or
poorly-represented physical processes (e.g. katabatic winds, ice shelf
basal melting). We note other applications of this method, including the
assessment of seasonal variability, and model-data comparison with
different CMIP6 simulations and higher resolution regional ocean models.