Abstract
Declining Arctic sea ice thickness and extent over the past several
decades has resulted in extensive regions of thin ice vulnerable to
melting. We use the ERA-5 reanalysis along with a fully coupled
atmosphere-ocean-ice model (Navy ESPC) to explore the role of Arctic
cyclones in summertime sea-ice change. The ERA-5 reanalysis is used to
statistically analyze how surface energy fluxes and wind forcing from
Arctic cyclones in the marginal ice zone between May and August
(1999-2018) influence sea-ice extent on 1-10 day timescales. In May and
June, cyclones decelerate the local seasonal loss of sea-ice extent due
to a reduction in the incoming solar radiation. In late summer, cyclones
no longer decelerate the seasonal loss of sea-ice extent, despite still
reducing the net surface energy flux. Surface wind forcing across the ice
edge explains only a small fraction of the short-term changes in local
sea-ice extent, which suggests other processes not accounted for in this
analysis, such as bottom melt, become important later in the melt
season. In order to gain a more detailed understanding of how cyclones
affect sea ice we then utilize the coupled Navy ESPC to examine the
intense “Great Arctic Cyclone” of August 2012. Two mechanisms of
cyclone-induced melting are identified: turbulent mixing of a warm layer
located at 15- to 35-m depth increases bottom melting and warm air
advection by the strong surface winds increases surface melting. The sea
ice melt rate is substantially enhanced by the cyclone, however this
effect is confined to a relatively small region and only lasts for a few
days. Lastly, we note that despite the marked trend in the reduction of
sea ice extent over the past several decades, reanalysis indicates
little trend in the Arctic storminess as diagnosed by kinetic energy as
a proxy for Arctic cyclones.