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Climate Change Induced Increase on Power Demand and CO 2 Emissions in the Middle East (Qatar)
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  • Léna Gurriaran,
  • Katsumasa Tanaka,
  • Yiannis Proestos,
  • Jos Lelieveld,
  • Philippe Ciais
Léna Gurriaran

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Katsumasa Tanaka
CEA Saclay,National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)
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University Of Strathclyde,University of Strathclyde
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Yiannis Proestos
The Cyprus Institute
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Jos Lelieveld
The Cyprus Institute
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Philippe Ciais
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The hotter the climate is, the higher the demand for cooling is, leading to more electricity consumption and CO2 emissions. To understand the effect of future regional warming on the electricity demand and CO2 emissions in the Arabian Peninsula region, we selected a representative country, Qatar, and developed a model that relates daily electricity demand with temperature. By combining this model with temperature projections from of 1 23 the CMIP6 database (bias adjusted and statistically downscaled), as well as GDP and population projections from four SSP scenarios, we calculated Qatar’s demand for electricity until the end of the century. We found an average sensitivity of 1.7 GWh/°C for the electricity demand, equivalent to 0.4 MtCO2/°C for CO2 emissions. The electricity demand is projected to increase by 5 to 35% due to warming alone at the end of this century. Under SSP1, the warming-induced CO2 emissions could be offset by improvements of carbon intensity. Under SSP5, assuming no improvement of carbon intensity, future warming could add 20 to 35% of CO2 emissions per year by the end of the century, with half of the electricity demand related to extremely hot days becoming more frequent in the future. Our findings suggest that it is important to consider additional CO2 emissions arising from future warming in future temperature projections.