Abstract
Earthquake moment release is localized along a global fault system. This
network of branching and anastomosing fractures defines the
geometrically complex boundaries of tectonic plates and serves as the
locus of contemporary elastic strain energy storage between earthquakes.
The slow deformation of the earth’s crust in between earthquakes has
been observed geodetically for decades and provides a filtered
representation of the underlying earthquake behaviors. Here we describe
efforts to model fault system activity at a global scale incorporating
both tectonic plate motions and earthquake cycle effects. Interseismic
earthquake cycle effects are represented using a first-order
quasi-static elastic approximation, and these models yield a unified
estimate of slip deficit rates and subduction zone coupling constrained
by nominally interseismic geodetic surface velocity estimates. We
present key findings from a kinematic global fault system model with
1.6×107 km2 of fault system area including 16 subduction zones and
constrained by observations 22,500+ GPS velocities. Further, we describe
new approaches to the efficient representation of viscoelastic
deformation in large-scale block models and the prospects for
high-resolution block scale models that directly image partial fault
coupling across the entire global fault system. Because global geodetic
observations capture faults behaviors at varying stages throughout the
earthquake cycle, consideration of time-dependent deformation including
viscous dissipation of coseismically induced stresses is important for
accurate imaging of fault coupling. And, because concentrations of fault
coupling have been shown to spatially correlate with recent significant
earthquakes, being able to estimate partial coupling patterns on a
global scale may highlight pending seismicity.