Use of NOAA Coral Reef Watch Ecoforecasts by Resource Managers During
the 2014-2017 Global Coral Bleaching Event
Abstract
Coral reefs are one of the most diverse ecosystems on Earth and provide
significant ecological, economic, and societal benefits valued at
approximately $9.8 trillion U.S. dollars per year. Since 1997, NOAA’s
Coral Reef Watch (CRW) has used near real-time satellite monitoring to
provide ecological nowcasting of the ocean heat stress that can cause
mass coral bleaching. While this benefitted coral reef managers,
scientists, and other stakeholders, our users desired longer-range
forecasts. In 2012, CRW launched its probabilistic, global Four-Month
Coral Bleaching Outlook system based on NOAA’s operational Climate
Forecast System (now CFSv2). The Outlook proved accurate in local
bleaching events over the following two years. Subsequently, June
2014-May 2017 brought the longest, most widespread, and probably most
damaging coral bleaching event on record. As this global event greatly
threatened all tropical coral reefs, the Outlook system proved critical
in helping users worldwide prepare for and respond to bleaching –
including actions to reduce damage from these intense marine heatwaves.
This presentation will introduce CRW’s ecoforecasting tools and focus on
four “use cases” of CRW’s Outlook system during the 2014-17 global
coral bleaching event. In 2015, concern over bleaching forecasted by
CRW’s Outlooks prompted two actions by the State of Hawaii. First, the
“Eyes of the Reef” volunteer network organized numerous training
sessions and its first state-wide Bleach Watch “Bleachapalooza” event
to monitor bleaching across the state. Second, State scientists
collected specimens of rare corals to preserve them in onshore
nurseries. One of these species is now locally extinct on Hawaii’s
reefs, and these rescued specimens are being prepared for
re-introduction. Next, as CRW predicted bleaching would persist for
several months in the Northern Line Islands, NOAA mounted a special
cruise to monitor these remote coral reefs. The record heat stress
killed over 98% of the corals at Jarvis Island. Finally, in 2016, prior
to peak bleaching, Thailand used CRW’s prediction of severe heat stress
to close ten heavily used coral reefs to tourism as a way to reduce
further stress to the reefs. These actions show the value of
ecoforecasts to prepare resource managers for further climate change
impacts.