How Does El Niño Southern Oscillation Change Under Global Warming - A
First Look at CMIP6
Abstract
The latest generation of coupled models, the sixth Coupled Models
Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), is used to study the changes in the El
Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate. For the four
future scenarios studied, the sea surface temperature variability
increases in most CMIP6 models, but to varying degrees. This increase is
linked to a weakening of the east-west temperature gradient in the
tropical Pacific Ocean, which is evident across all models. Just as in
previous generations of climate models, we find that many
characteristics of future ENSO remain uncertain. This includes changes
in dominant timescale, extra-tropical teleconnection patterns and
amplitude of El Niño and La Niña events. For models with the strongest
increase in future variability, the majority of the increase happens in
the Eastern Pacific, where the strongest El Niño events usually occur.