A framework for 210Pb model selection and its application to 37 cores
from Eastern Canada to identify the dynamics and drivers of lake
sedimentation rates
Abstract
Lake sedimentation rate represents a synthetic metric of ecosystem
functioning. Many localized studies have reported a significant
association between land use/land cover changes and lake sediment mass
accumulation rates, with a few global syntheses echoing these findings
at larger scales. In the literature, studies evaluating lead-210 (210Pb)
for establishing sediment chronologies will report at least one of three
dating models, but the constant rate of supply (C.R.S.) model is the
most widely used. However, it is often unclear how or why this model is
selected, despite its influence on the interpretation of many subsequent
analyses about ecosystem dynamics and functioning. It would thus be
advantageous to design an objective and semi-automated way of choosing
among dating models. We measured radioisotopic activities in 37 sediment
cores across four ecozones of eastern Canada and developed an approach
to assess model fit for the three commonly applied dating models. The
derived chronologies were then used to evaluate the spatial and temporal
variation in sedimentation rates across four ecozones in Canada
(covering a surface area of 2.2 x 10^6 km2). We observed a recent
increase in lake sedimentation rates across most lakes, as has been
observed globally, albeit with significant differences in the magnitude
of sedimentation rates across ecozones. Across all lakes, we found that
regional human population counts and mean annual air temperatures were
significant temporal predictors of variation in mass accumulation rates.
Overall, this analytical framework offers an objective approach for
assessing fit and selecting among sediment age models, which contributes
to a more robust quantification of sedimentation rates. With this first
application, we provide a quantitative assessment of how lake
sedimentation rates vary across a northern lake-rich region and have
responded to environmental change.