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Revisiting online and offline data assimilation comparison for paleoclimate reconstruction: an idealized OSSE study
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  • Atsushi Okazaki,
  • Takemasa Miyoshi,
  • Kei Yoshimura,
  • Steven J. Greybush,
  • Fuqing Zhang
Atsushi Okazaki
Pennsylvania State University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Takemasa Miyoshi
RIKEN
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Kei Yoshimura
University of Tokyo
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Steven J. Greybush
Pennsylvania State University
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Fuqing Zhang
Pennsylvania State University
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Abstract

Data assimilation (DA) has been applied to estimate the time-mean state such as annual mean surface temperature for paleoclimate reconstruction. There are two types of DA for this purpose: online-DA and offline-DA. The online-DA estimates the time-mean states and the initial conditions for the next DA cycles while the offline-DA only estimates the former. If there is sufficiently long predictability in the system of interest compared to the temporal resolution of the observations, online-DA is expected to outperform offline-DA by utilizing information in the initial conditions. However, previous studies failed to show the superiority of online-DA when time-averaged observations are assimilated, and the reason has not been investigated thoroughly. This study compares online-DA and offline-DA and investigates the relation to the predictability using an intermediate complexity general circulation model with perfect-model observing system simulation experiments. The result shows that the online-DA outperforms offline-DA when the length of predictability is longer than the averaging time of the observations. We also found that the longer the predictability, the more skillful the online-DA. Here, the ocean plays a crucial role in extending predictability, which helps online-DA to outperform offline-DA. Interestingly, the observations of near-surface air temperature over land are found to be highly valuable to update the ocean variables in the analysis steps, suggesting the importance to use cross-domain covariance information between the atmosphere and the ocean when online-DA is applied to reconstruct paleoclimate.
27 Aug 2021Published in Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres volume 126 issue 16. 10.1029/2020JD034214