Revisiting online and offline data assimilation comparison for
paleoclimate reconstruction: an idealized OSSE study
Abstract
Data assimilation (DA) has been applied to estimate the time-mean state
such as annual mean surface temperature for paleoclimate reconstruction.
There are two types of DA for this purpose: online-DA and offline-DA.
The online-DA estimates the time-mean states and the initial conditions
for the next DA cycles while the offline-DA only estimates the former.
If there is sufficiently long predictability in the system of interest
compared to the temporal resolution of the observations, online-DA is
expected to outperform offline-DA by utilizing information in the
initial conditions. However, previous studies failed to show the
superiority of online-DA when time-averaged observations are
assimilated, and the reason has not been investigated thoroughly. This
study compares online-DA and offline-DA and investigates the relation to
the predictability using an intermediate complexity general circulation
model with perfect-model observing system simulation experiments. The
result shows that the online-DA outperforms offline-DA when the length
of predictability is longer than the averaging time of the observations.
We also found that the longer the predictability, the more skillful the
online-DA. Here, the ocean plays a crucial role in extending
predictability, which helps online-DA to outperform offline-DA.
Interestingly, the observations of near-surface air temperature over
land are found to be highly valuable to update the ocean variables in
the analysis steps, suggesting the importance to use cross-domain
covariance information between the atmosphere and the ocean when
online-DA is applied to reconstruct paleoclimate.