Abstract
We observe a remarkable correlation between the inter-tremor time
interval and the slenderness ratio of the overriding plate in subduction
zones all over the world. In order to understand this phenomenon better,
we perform numerical simulations of deformation as well as study the 3D
surficial deformation of the overriding continental crust in Cascadia
and Alaska using GPS data. The numerical modeling studies show that
critical load and slenderness ratio indeed have an inverse nonlinear
relation between them (identical to the classical Eulers critical load
relation), and very similar to the non-linear relationship observed
between the inter-tremor time interval and the slenderness ratio of the
overriding plate. Assuming that all continental wedges experience
similar stress rates, the critical stress should be approximately
directly proportional to the inter-tremor time interval. Therefore, we
can use inter-tremor time interval as a proxy for critical stress. From
the above analysis, we conclude that the observed relationship between
the inter-tremor time interval and the slenderness ratio of the
overriding plate is a result of buckling of the overriding continental
plate. In addition to the above numerical analysis, we analyze the
surficial 3D spatio-temporal displacements of the overriding plates in
Cascadia and Alaska using 3-component GPS data. We find that these
deformations are consistent with the buckling of the overriding
continental crust. Based on these novel observations, we propose an
Episodic Buckling and Collapse model of subduction zones where periodic
tectonic-tremor activity and geodetic changes, result from the episodic
buckling of the overriding continental crust and its rapid collapse on
the subducting oceanic slab. According to this model, geodetic
measurements, previously inferred as slow slip, are the surficial
expressions of slowly-evolving buckling and rapid collapse of the
overriding plate, while tremor swarms result from the striking of the
collapsing overriding plate on the subducting slab (as opposed to
slipping or shearing). All existing scientific observations and
findings, previously interpreted in the light of the Slow Slip
hypothesis, are demonstrably explained by the proposed model.