Abstract
We discover a remarkable correlation between the inter-tremor time
interval and the slenderness ratio of the overriding plate in subduction
zones all over the world. In order to understand this phenomenon better,
we perform numerical simulations of 3D deformation. The numerical
bending studies show that critical bending load and slenderness ratio
indeed have an inverse nonlinear relation between them – identical to
the classical Euler’s critical load relation, and closely resembling the
relationship observed between the inter-tremor time interval and the
slenderness ratio of the overriding plate. From the above analysis, we
conclude that the observed relation is the result of bending of the
overriding continental plate. In addition, we analyze the surficial 3D
spatio-temporal displacements of the overriding plates in Cascadia and
Alaska using 3-component GPS data. We find that these deformations are
consistent with the bending of the overriding continental crust. Based
on these novel observations and guided by numerous existing scientific
observations and findings, we propose an Episodic Bending and Collapse
model of subduction zones, wherein periodic geodetic changes and
tectonic-tremor activity, result from the episodic bending of the
overriding continental crust and its rapid collapse on the subducting
oceanic slab. According to this model, geodetic measurements, previously
inferred as slow slip, are the surficial expressions of slowly-evolving
bending and rapid collapse of the overriding plate, while tremor swarms
result from the striking of the collapsing overriding plate on the
subducting slab (as opposed to slipping or shearing).