A Prediction model of relativistic electrons at geostationary orbit
using the EMD-LSTM network and geomagnetic indices
Abstract
In this study, the Empirical Mode Decomposition algorithm (EMD) and the
Long Short Term Memory neural network (LSTM) were combined into an
EMD-LSTM model, to predict the variation of the >2MeV
electron fluxes. Input parameters include the Pc5 power and related
geomagnetic indices are used for predictions. As compared the prediction
results of the EMD-LSTM model with other classical prediction models,
the results show that the one-day ahead prediction efficiency of the
> 2MeV electron fluxes possesses a prediction efficiency of
0.80, and the highest prediction efficiency can reach 0.93. These
results are superior to the prediction accuracy of more traditional
models. Using two high-energy electron flux storm events for validation,
the results indicate that the performance of the EMD-LSTM model in the
period of the high-energy electron flux storm is also relatively good,
especially for the prediction of high-energy electron fluxes at extreme
points, and the prediction is closer to actual observation.