One of the central challenges for global food security is the growing
pressure from increasingly frequent extreme weather events that results
in sharp drops in crop yield and disruptions in the food supply. Such
pressure can potentially be alleviated by international crop trade,
which plays a crucial role in reallocating food commodities from surplus
to deficit regions. However, few studies have examined the influence of
extreme weather events and the synchrony of crop yield anomalies on
trade linkages among nations. To investigate such influence, we used the
international trade network of wheat as an example, developed relevant
covariates, and tested specialized statistical and machine learning
methods. The results show that countries with higher differences in
extreme weather stress tend to have higher import volumes and more trade
partners. Trade partnerships are more likely to be established between
countries with synchronous yield variations. These findings indicate
that increase in heat stress and co-occurring yield loss could lead to
future higher dependence on imports, especially for vulnerable import
dependent nations, and affect the stability of wheat supply. Hence, the
current international trade network needs to be improved by
contemplating the patterns of extreme weather and yield synchrony among
countries.