Joint CO2 Mole Fraction and Flux Analysis Confirms Missing Processes in
CASA Terrestrial Carbon Uptake over North America
Abstract
Terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) play a key role in detection and
attribution of carbon cycle processes at local to global scales and in
projections of the coupled carbon-climate system. TBM evaluation
commonly involves direct comparison to eddy-covariance flux
measurements. This study uses atmospheric CO2 mole
fraction ([CO2]) measured in situ from
aircraft and tower, in addition to flux-measurements from summer 2016 to
evaluate the CASA TBM. WRF-Chem is used to simulate
[CO2] using biogenic CO2 fluxes from
a CASA parameter-based ensemble and CarbonTracker version 2017 (CT2017)
in addition to transport and CO2 boundary condition
ensembles. The resulting “super ensemble” of modeled
[CO2] demonstrates that the biosphere introduces the
majority of uncertainty to the simulations. Both aircraft and tower
[CO2] data show that the CASA ensemble net ecosystem
exchange (NEE) of CO2 is biased high (NEE too positive)
and identify the maximum light use efficiency
Emax a key parameter that drives the spread of
the CASA ensemble. These findings are verified with flux-measurements.
The direct comparison of the CASA flux ensemble with flux-measurements
indicates that modeled [CO2] biases are mainly due
to missing sink processes in CASA. Separating the daytime and nighttime
flux, we discover that the underestimated net uptake results from
missing sink processes that result in overestimation of respiration. NEE
biases are smaller in the CT2017 posterior biogenic fluxes, which
assimilates observed [CO2]. Flux tower analyses,
however, reveal unrealistic overestimation of nighttime respiration in
CT2017.