Towards improved hazard assessments for large effusive eruptions: Lava
flow advance during the 2018 Kīlauea Lower East Rift Zone eruption
Abstract
The 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano produced the largest and most
destructive lava flows in the lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) in the past
200 years. Average effusion rates exceeded 100 m3 s-1 (DRE) for more
than two months as lava covered > 30 km2 of land area. The
largest and longest-lived lava flow was produced by fissure 8 and had
flow advance rates exceeding 100 m hr-1 and a run-out length of 13 km.
While residents were able to safely evacuate from this rapidly advancing
flow, hundreds of structures were destroyed. We integrate observed
eruption parameters from the fissure 8 flow with numerical models for
lava flows to investigate how eruption rate, topography, and rheology
affect the initial path, advance rate, and extent of a lava flow. Many
numerical models have been created to represent the advance and/or
extent of lava flows. We apply both 1D and 2D, rules-based and
physics-based models to explore the advantages and limitations of these
model types. First, we validate the models for fissure 8 flow parameters
using existing datasets from field observations and sample analysis.
Second, we vary the eruption rate and lava rheology to test the
influence of these parameters on the advance rate and flow extent. This
analysis demonstrates the level of confidence that can be associated
with modeling results when estimating difficult-to-constrain parameters
during an eruption. Third, using input digital elevation models (DEM) of
different resolutions, we examine the sensitivity of model accuracy to
DEM resolution, with a specific focus on the influence on flow advance
of smaller-scale topographic features that may not be resolved in
coarse-resolution DEMs. Through better understanding of how different
parameters control flow emplacement, and how to best apply the models
describing that emplacement, we aim to improve the ability to estimate
advance rate and flow path during (and prior to) the initial stages of
flow emplacement and provide more detailed hazard assessments for future
eruptions.