Exploring effects of factor configurations in a “toy” migration
agent-based model
Abstract
Migration is a complex and interdisciplinary problem involving multiple
factors such as social interactions, resource scarcity, and geographical
features. These factors must be incorporated in migration models, but
how? We feel that the issue how different factors should be incorporated
is not carefully addressed in existing models. Configuring factors in
ways that are theoretically unsound can lead to false migration patterns
and undermine the usefulness of models; indeed, factor configurations
may be more critical than the factors themselves or other inputs.
Therefore, we ask: i) How important is factor configuration to output
results comparing with other inputs?; ii) How do different factor
configurations produce different migration patterns?; and iii) How can
multimodality of certain output distributions be controlled in a
management perspective? To address the questions, we develop a “toy”
migration agent-based model (ABM) and explore three possible
configurations between two factors: i) two factors are perfectly
substitutable (ADD), ii) both factors are indispensable (AND), and iii)
either is enough (OR). ABM results are analyzed by global sensitivity
analysis (GSA) and Monte-Carlo Filtering (MCF). The relative importance
of factor configurations quantified by GSA emphasizes why we need to
consider how the factors are incorporated. Depending on factor
configurations, we also observe unimodal or multimodal output
distributions. MCF is then applied to the ABM-GSA results to address how
policymakers should control certain inputs to sustain systems with
desirable outputs. Altogether, we have integrated ABM, GSA, and MCF to
disentangle complexity of migration models and better understand
underlying mechanisms and patterns of migration.