Abstract
We developed a space-time model to project seasonal streamflow extremes
on a river network for at several lead times. In this, the extremes –
3-day maximum streamflow - at each gauge location on the network are
assumed to be realized from a Generalized Extreme Value (GEV)
distribution with temporal non-stationary parameters. The parameters are
modeled as a linear function of suitable covariates. In addition, the
spatial dependence of the extremes across the network is modeled via a
Gaussian copula. The parameters of the non-stationary GEV at each
location are estimated via maximum likelihood, whereas those of the
Copula are estimated via maximum pseudo-likelihood. Best subset of
covariates are selected using AIC. Ensembles of streamflow in time,
which are based on the varying temporal covariates and from the Copula,
are generated, consequently, capturing the spatial and temporal
variability and the attendant uncertainty. We applied this framework to
project spring (May-Jun) season 3-day maximum flow at seven gauges in
the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) network, at 0 ~ 3
months lead time. In this basin, almost all of the annual flow and
extremes that cause severe flooding, arrives during the spring season as
a result of melting of snow accumulated during the preceding winter
season. As potential covariates, we used indices of large scale climate
teleconnection – ENSO, AMO, and PDO, regional mean snow water
equivalent and temperature from the preceding winter season. The skill
of the probabilistic projections of flow extremes is assessed by rank
histograms and skill scores such as CRPSS and ES for marginal and
spatial performance. We also evaluate the utility of Gaussian Copula by
computing spatial threshold exceedance probabilities compared to a model
without the Copula – i.e. independent model at each gauge. The
validation indicates that the model is able to capture the space-time
variability of flow extremes very well, and the skills increase with
decreasing lead time. Also the use of climate variables enhances skill
relative to using just the snow information. The median projections and
their uncertainties are highly consistent with the observations with a
Gaussian copula than without it, indicating the role of spatial
dependence. This framework will be of use in long leading planning of
flood risk mitigation strategies.