Abstract
We developed a novel Bayesian Hierarchical Network Model (BHNM) for
daily streamflow, which uses the spatial dependence induced by the river
network topology, and average daily precipitation from the upstream
contributing area between station gauges. In this, daily streamflow at
each station is assumed to be distributed as Gamma distribution with
temporal non-stationary parameters. The mean and standard deviation of
the Gamma distribution for each day are modeled as a linear function of
suitable covariates. The covariates include daily streamflow from
upstream gauges or from the gauge above of the upstream gauges depending
on the travel times, and daily, 2-day, or 3-day precipitation from the
area between two stations that attempts to reflect the antecedent land
conditions. Intercepts and slopes of the mean and standard deviation
parameters are modeled as a Multivariate Normal distribution (MVN) to
capture their dependence structure. To ensure that the covariance matrix
of MVN is positive definite, it is model as an Inverse Wishart
distribution. Non-informative priors for each parameter were considered.
Using the network structure in incorporating flow information from
upstream gauges and precipitation from the immediate contributing area
as covariates, enables to capture the spatial correlation of flows
simultaneously and parsimoniously. The posterior distribution of the
model parameters and, consequently, the predictive posterior Gamma
distribution of the daily streamflow at each station and for each day
are obtained. The model is demonstrated by its application to daily
summer (July-August) streamflow at 4 gauges in the Narmada basin network
in central India for the period 1978 – 2014. The skill of the
probabilistic forecast is carried out by rank histograms and the
Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS). The model validation
indicates that the model is highly skillful relative to climatology and
relative to a null-model of linear regression. The forecasts present an
adequate spread of uncertainty and non-bias. Since flooding is of major
concern in this basin, we applied the BHNM in a cross-validated mode on
two high flooding years – in that, the model was fitted on other years,
and forecasts were made for the dropped-out high flooding year. The
skill of the model in forecasting the high flood events was very good
across the network – in both the timing and magnitude of the events.
The model will be of immense help to policy makers in risk-based flood
mitigation. The BHNM framework is general in nature and can be applied
to any river network with other covariates as appropriate.