A space--time Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework for projection of
seasonal high flow risk
Abstract
Hydroclimate extreme events, especially precipitation and streamflow
extremes during wet seasons, pose severe threats to life, livelihoods,
and infrastructure. Therefore, timely and skillful projections of
attributes of seasonal streamflow extremes are imperative to plan
mitigation strategies. In particular, the number of ‘events’ – i.e.,
exceedances of flow thresholds that result in flooding and the magnitude
of such extremes during the season, will be of immense use to
policymakers for early planning and implementation of flood risk
mitigation and adaptation strategies. However, predicting seasonal
extremes is challenging, particularly under spatial and temporal
non-stationarity. To address this need, we develop a space-time model to
project seasonal flow risk attributes using a Bayesian hierarchical
modeling (BHM) framework in this study. In this model, the number of
events exceeding a threshold during a season at a suite of gauge
locations on a river network are modeled as Poisson margins. The
seasonal daily maximum flows are modeled as a generalized extreme value
(GEV). The rate parameters of the Poisson distribution and scale and
shape parameters of the GEV are modeled as a linear function of suitable
covariates. Gaussian Elliptical Copulas are applied to capture the
spatial dependence. The best set of covariates is selected using the
leave-one-out cross-validation information criteria (LOOIC). The
modeling framework results in the posterior distribution of the risk
attributes for each season and, thus, the uncertainties. We demonstrate
the utility of this modeling framework to project the flood risk
attributes during the summer peak monsoon season (July-August) at five
gauges in the Narmada River basin of West-Central India. As potential
covariates, we consider climate indices such as El Niño–Southern
Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and the Pacific Warm
Pool Region (PWPR) from the precedent season, which have shown strong
teleconnections with the Indian monsoon. This spatiotemporal modeling
framework helps in the planning of seasonal adaptation and preparedness
measures as predictions of monsoon high flow risk occurrence become
available up to 3 months before actual flood occurrence.