Spatial Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Summer Extreme Precipitation
over the Southwest U.S.
Abstract
The Southwest U.S. comprising of the four states-Arizona, New Mexico,
Colorado, and Utah-is the hottest and driest region of the United
States. Most of the precipitation arrives during the winter season, but
the summer precipitation makes a significant contribution to the
reliability of water resources and the health of ecology. However,
summer precipitation and its extremes, over this region exhibit high
degree of spatial and temporal variability. In this study we developed a
novel spatial Bayesian hierarchical model to capture the space-time
variability of –summer season 3-day maximum precipitation over the
southwest U.S. In modeling framework, the data layer the extremes at
each station are assumed to be distributed as Generalized Extreme Value
(GEV) distribution with non-stationary parameters. In addition, the
extremes across space is assumed to be related via a Gaussian Copula. In
the process layer, the parameters are modeled as a linear function of
large scale climate variables and regional mean precipitation
covariates. This is akin to a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). The
parameters of the covariates at each station are spatially modeled using
spatial Gaussian processes to capture the spatial dependency and enable
generating the spatial field of the hydroclimate extremes. The
likelihood estimates of the GLM at each station form the initial priors.
The posterior distribution of the model parameters and consequently the
predictive posterior GEV distribution of the hydroclimate extremes at
any arbitrary location, or grid and for any year are obtained. The model
is demonstrated by application to extreme summer precipitation at 73
stations from this region. The model validation indicates that return
levels and their associated uncertainty have a well-defined spatial
structure and furthermore, they capture the historical variability very
well. The posterior distribution of the GEV parameters were generated on
a 1/8th degree grid, providing maps of various return levels for all the
years. Maps of return levels provide information about the spatial and
temporal variations of the risk of extreme precipitation in the
Southwest U.S. that will be of immense help in management and planning
of natural resources and infrastructure.