Abstract
We present a methodology to define strong, moderate, and intense space
weather events based on probability distributions. We have illustrated
this methodology using a long-duration, uniform data set of 1.8-3.5 MeV
electron fluxes from multiple LANL geosynchronous satellite instruments
but a strength of this methodology is that it can be applied uniformly
to heterogeneous data sets. It allows quantitative comparison of data
sets with different energies, units, orbits, etc. The methodology
identifies a range of times, “events”, using variable flux thresholds
to determine average event occurrence in arbitrary 11-year intervals
(“cycles”). We define strong, moderate, and intense events as those
that occur 100, 10, and 1 time per cycle and identify the flux
thresholds that produce those occurrence frequencies. The methodology
does not depend on any ancillary data set (e.g. solar wind or
geomagnetic conditions). We show event probabilities using GOES
> 2 MeV fluxes and compare them against event probabilities
using LANL 1.8-3.5 MeV fluxes. We present some examples of how the
methodology picks out strong, moderate, and intense events and how those
events are distributed in time: 1989 through 2018, which includes the
declining phases of solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. We also provide an
illustrative comparison of moderate and strong events identified in the
geosynchronous data with Van Allen Probes observations across all
L-shells. We also provide a catalog of start and stop times of strong,
moderate, and intense events that can be used for future studies.