loading page

Uncertainty in the Simulated Cloud Radar Signals Related to Sub-grid Precipitation With GCMs
  • +5
  • Tempei Hashino,
  • Masaki Satoh,
  • Takuji Kubota,
  • Tsuyoshi Koshiro,
  • Kozo Okamoto,
  • Yuichiro Hagihara,
  • Hajime Okamoto,
  • Tatsuya Seiki
Tempei Hashino
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Kochi University of Technology

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Masaki Satoh
University of Tokyo
Author Profile
Takuji Kubota
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Author Profile
Tsuyoshi Koshiro
Meteorological Research Institute
Author Profile
Kozo Okamoto
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency
Author Profile
Yuichiro Hagihara
Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency
Author Profile
Hajime Okamoto
Kyushu University
Author Profile
Tatsuya Seiki
Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology
Author Profile

Abstract

The forward simulation of radar reflectivity requires details of clouds and precipitation from general circulation models (GCMs). But such details are represented as sub-grid processes that involve parameterizations and assumptions about the spatial coverage and thus depend on the GCM. In this research, we propose the use of a statistical method to generate sub-grid precipitation for generic use. In addition, the proposed method can be used to provide uncertainty estimates on the signals. The sub-grid variability is obtained from simulation with a global storm-resolving model called NICAM (non-hydrostatic icosahedral atmospheric model). The proposed method first generates precipitation probabilities for the possible scenarios and then sub-grid precipitation rates are generated from the generalized gamma distribution for the given cloud fraction and grid-scale precipitation rates. Compared to the standard method (which neglects the probabilities) that overestimates the precipitation fraction, our method well reproduces the NICAM dataset profiles of both the precipitation fraction and the radar-based cloud fraction. The in-cloud signal frequencies are also reproduced, although less accurately over a tropical region. Inclusion of sub-grid variability in precipitation rates was particularly important for the tropical region to obtain agreement of the precipitation fraction. Application of the two methods to a GCM shows it to have a robust bias for low-level liquid clouds. The proposed method can be used to identify uncertainty in the signals associated with sub-grid variability in the precipitation processes, indicating an effective way to use a global storm-resolving model to evaluate conventional GCMs.
05 Oct 2024Submitted to ESS Open Archive
07 Oct 2024Published in ESS Open Archive