Uncertainty in the Simulated Cloud Radar Signals Related to Sub-grid
Precipitation With GCMs
Abstract
The forward simulation of radar reflectivity requires details of clouds
and precipitation from general circulation models (GCMs). But such
details are represented as sub-grid processes that involve
parameterizations and assumptions about the spatial coverage and thus
depend on the GCM. In this research, we propose the use of a statistical
method to generate sub-grid precipitation for generic use. In addition,
the proposed method can be used to provide uncertainty estimates on the
signals. The sub-grid variability is obtained from simulation with a
global storm-resolving model called NICAM (non-hydrostatic icosahedral
atmospheric model). The proposed method first generates precipitation
probabilities for the possible scenarios and then sub-grid precipitation
rates are generated from the generalized gamma distribution for the
given cloud fraction and grid-scale precipitation rates. Compared to the
standard method (which neglects the probabilities) that overestimates
the precipitation fraction, our method well reproduces the NICAM dataset
profiles of both the precipitation fraction and the radar-based cloud
fraction. The in-cloud signal frequencies are also reproduced, although
less accurately over a tropical region. Inclusion of sub-grid
variability in precipitation rates was particularly important for the
tropical region to obtain agreement of the precipitation fraction.
Application of the two methods to a GCM shows it to have a robust bias
for low-level liquid clouds. The proposed method can be used to identify
uncertainty in the signals associated with sub-grid variability in the
precipitation processes, indicating an effective way to use a global
storm-resolving model to evaluate conventional GCMs.