VISCOUS: A Variance-Based Sensitivity Analysis Using Copulas for
Efficient Identification of Dominant Hydrological Processes
Abstract
Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) has long been recognized as an
indispensable tool for model analysis. GSA has been extensively used for
model simplification, identifiability analysis, and diagnostic tests,
among others. Nevertheless, computationally efficient methodologies are
sorely needed for GSA, not only to reduce the computational overhead,
but also to improve the quality and robustness of the results. This is
especially the case for process-based hydrologic models, as their
simulation time is often too high and is typically beyond the
availability for a comprehensive GSA. We overcome this computational
barrier by developing an efficient variance-based sensitivity analysis
using copulas. Our data-driven method, called VISCOUS, approximates the
joint probability density function of the given set of input-output
pairs using Gaussian mixture copula to provide a given-data estimation
of the sensitivity indices. This enables our method to identify dominant
hydrologic factors by recycling pre-computed set of model evaluations or
existing input-output data, and thus avoids augmenting the computational
cost. We used two hydrologic models of increasing complexity (HBV and
VIC) to assess the performance of the proposed method. Our results
confirm that VISCOUS and the original variance-based method can detect
similar important and unimportant factors. However, while being robust,
our method can substantially reduce the computational cost. The results
here are particularly significant for, though not limited to,
process-based models with many uncertain parameters, large domain size,
and high spatial and temporal resolution.