As society moves towards greater dependence on technology, understanding and predicting extreme Space Weather becomes increasingly important. Indeed, the complex, simultaneous interplay between multiple phenomena can unpack further insight into Space Weather effects. Thanks to decades of in-situ and ground observations, long archives of Space Weather measurements are ripe for exploitation by more complex, data intensive techniques. In this study, three decades of in-situ and ground observations of Earth’s Space environment are leveraged to model the joint extremal behaviour of solar wind driving and internal geomagnetic responses, using Bivariate Extreme Value Analysis. While often utilised in other fields with more long-term and/or higher spatial resolution datasets (such as meteorology), this is the first application of this technique in more than one dimension in the field of space plasma physics. An initial result is that upstream and internal variables exhibit weaker extremal dependence on minute timescales than on hourly timescales, in line with characteristic magnetospheric coupling timescales. Specifically, the joint extremal behaviour of a solar wind coupling function with the auroral electrojet index AE is explored and predicted. This modelling enables estimation of a 75-year return period for the 2003 Halloween geomagnetic storm.

Utilising magnetic field measurements made by the Iridium satellites and by ground magnetometers in North America we calculate the full ionospheric current system and investigate the substorm current wedge. The current estimates are independent of ionospheric conductance, and are based on estimates of the divergence-free (DF) ionospheric current from ground magnetometers and curl-free (CF) ionospheric currents from Iridium. The DF and CF currents are represented using spherical elementary current systems (SECS), derived using a new inversion scheme that ensures the current systems’ spatial scales are consistent. We present 18 substorm events and find a typical substorm current wedge (SCW) in 12 events. Our investigation of these substorms shows that during substorm expansion, equivalent field-aligned currents (EFACs) derived with ground magnetometers are a poor proxy of the actual FAC. We also find that the intensification of the westward electrojet can occur without an intensification of the FACs. We present theoretical investigations that show that the observed deviation between FACs estimated with satellite measurements and ground-based EFACs are consistent with the presence of a strong local enhancement of the ionospheric conductance, similar to the substorm bulge. Such enhancements of the auroral conductance can also change the ionospheric closure of pre-existing FACs such that the ground magnetic field, and in particular the westward electrojet, changes significantly. These results demonstrate that attributing intensification of the westward electrojet to SCW current closure can yield false understanding of the ionospheric and magnetospheric state.

Using a substorm onset list from the Imager for Magnetopause to Aurora Global Exploration (IMAGE) and Polar satellite images, we have constructed a new dataset of 63 substorm onsets observed in both hemispheres and their locations. We find that incorporating the history of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) improves the predictive power of IMF By in explaining conjugate displacement in Magnetic Local Time (MLT). Our dataset, approximately five times larger than in previous studies, enhances statistical power and focuses on the substorm onset feature. This allows for better correlation of IMF By with MLT conjugate displacement (ΔMLT), since it has been shown that IMF-induced By tends to diminish as substorms progress. In line with previous work, we find a linear relationship between IMF By and ΔMLT, though with a shallower gradient. Additionally, we analyse predictors of conjugate displacement in Magnetic Latitude (ΔMLat), showing that dipole tilt (ψ) is the strongest predictor. However, we find that this relationship is not strictly linear, and that a larger dataset and a better understanding of the physical mechanisms are needed to more accurately capture the exact functional relationship between ψ and ΔMLat.

The boundaries of the auroral oval and auroral electrojets are an important source of information for understanding the coupling between the solar wind and the near-earth plasma environment. Of these two types of boundaries the auroral electrojet boundaries have received comparatively little attention, and even less attention has been given to the connection between the two. Here we introduce a technique for estimating the electrojet boundaries, and other properties such as total current and peak current, from 1-D latitudinal profiles of the eastward component of equivalent current sheet density. We apply this technique to a preexisting database of such currents along the 105◦ magnetic meridian producing a total of eleven years of 1 minute resolution electrojet boundaries during the period 2000–2020. Using statistics and conjunction events we compare our electrojet boundary dataset with an existing electrojet boundary dataset, based on Swarm satellite measurements, and auroral oval proxies based on particle precipitation and field aligned currents. This allows us to validate our dataset and investigate the feasibility of an auroral oval proxy based on electrojet boundaries. Through this investigation we find the proton precipitation auroral oval is a closer match with the electrojet boundaries. However, the bimodal nature of the electrojet boundaries as we approach the noon and midnight discontinuities makes an average electrojet oval poorly defined. With this and the direct comparisons differing from the statistics, defining the proton auroral oval from electrojet boundaries across all local and universal times is challenging.

The aurora often appears as an approximately oval shape surrounding the magnetic poles, and is a visible manifestation of the intricate coupling between the Earth’s upper atmosphere and the near-Earth space environment. While the average size of the auroral oval increases with geomagnetic activity, the instantaneous shape and size of the aurora is highly dynamic. The identification of auroral boundaries holds significant value in space physics, as it serves to define and differentiate regions within the magnetosphere connected to the aurora by magnetic field lines. In this work, we demonstrate a method to detect and model the poleward and equatorward boundaries in global UV images. Our methodology enables analysis of the spatiotemporal variation in auroral boundaries from 2.5 years of UV imagery from the IMAGE satellite. The resulting dataset reveals a root mean square boundary normal velocity of 149 m/s for the poleward boundary and 96 m/s for the equatorward boundary and the velocities are shown to be stronger on the nightside than on the dayside. Interestingly, our findings demonstrate an absence of correlation between the amount of open magnetic flux and the amount of flux enclosed within the auroral oval. Furthermore, we highlight the inadequacy of a simplistic generalization of the expanding-contracting polar cap paradigm in explaining temporal variations in the auroral oval area, underscoring the imperative for an enhanced understanding of equatorward boundary fluctuations.

We present the implementation of an improved technique to coherently model the high-latitude ionospheric equivalent current. By using a favourable and fixed selection of 20 ground magnetometers in Fennoscandia, we present a method based on Spherical Elementary Current Systems (SECS) to model the currents coherently during 2000–2020. Due to the north-south extent of the ground stations used, we focus on the model output along the 105◦ magnetic meridian. In addition to the fixed data locations and SECS analysis grid, our improvements involve taking into account a priori knowledge of the large-scale current systems to improve the robustness of solving the underdetermined inverse problem. We account for contributions from ground induced currents assuming so-called mirror currents. An advantage of this data set over existing empirical models of ionospheric currents is the 1-min output resolution. High temporal resolution enables investigation of temporal changes in the magnetic field. We present an analysis of statistical properties of where (in magnetic latitude and local time) and at what rate (∂Br /∂t) the radial magnetic field component fluctuates. We show that ∂Br /∂t, which is equivalent to the radial component of the curl of the induced electric field, is dependent on latitude, local time, and solar cycle. Other applications of the presented data set are also highlighted, including investigations of how Ultra Low Frequency oscillations in ground magnetic perturbations vary in space and time.