Abstract
Large scale volcanism has played a critical role in the long-term
habitability of Earth. Contrary to widely held belief, volcanism rather
than impactors have had the greatest influence on, and bear most of the
responsibility for, large scale mass extinction events throughout
Earth’s history. We examine the timing of Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs)
through Earth’s history to estimate the likelihood of nearly
simultaneous events that could drive a planet into an extreme moist or
runaway greenhouse, quenching subductive plate tectonics. This would end
volatile cycling and may have caused the heat-death of Venus. With a
conservative estimate of the rate of simultaneous LIPs, in a random
history statistically the same as Earth’s, pairs and triplets of LIPs
closer in time than 0.1-1 Myrs are likely. This simultaneity threshold
is significant to the extent that it is less than the time over which
the environmental effects persist.