Future Scenario Earthquakes Dynamic Rupture simulation on the
Wenchuan-Maoxian Fault in the Longmen Shan, China, thrust belt
Abstract
The 2008 Wenchuan Mw 7.9 mainshock has caused catastrophic destruction
to cities along the northwestern margin of the Sichuan Basin. The
Wenchuan-Maoxian Fault (WMF) on the hinterland side, along with a
conjugate buried Lixian fault (LXF) was not activated by this earthquake
but is likely to experience large earthquakes in the future. We perform
3D dynamic earthquake rupture simulations on the WMF and LXF to access
the possibility of the earthquake occurrence and further explore the
possible size of earthquakes and the distribution of high seismic risk
in the future. We firstly invert focal mechanism solutions to get a
heterogeneous tectonic stress field as the initial stress of simulation.
Then we develop a new method to refine fault geometry through inverting
long-term slip rates. Several fault nucleation points, friction
coefficients, and initial stress states are tested, and the general
rupture patterns for these earthquake scenarios are evaluated and could
fall into three groups. Depending on initial conditions, the dynamic
rupture may start in the LXF, leading to magnitude-7.0 earthquakes, or
start in the WMF, then cascades through the LXF, leading to
magnitude-7.5 earthquakes, or both start and arrest in the WMF, leading
to around magnitude-6.5 or 7.0 earthquakes. We find that the rupture
starting on the reverse oblique-slip tends to jump to the strike-slip
fault, but the reverse process is suppressed. The rupture propagating
eastward causes larger coseismic displacements than the westward
propagation, and relatively high peak ground velocities are distributed
near the northeastern end of WMF.