Toward Data Assimilation of the Solar Wind: Comparison of Variational
and Sequential Assimilation for 1D Magnetohydrodynamics Flows
Abstract
Due to the potential risks that space weather (SW) events associated
with solar-wind disturbances pose on modern technology and
infrastructure, there has been increasing interest in physics-based
forecasts of the solar wind and related phenomena, such as coronal mass
ejections. Computational models of heliospheric space plasmas and space
weather are generally based on the equations of ideal
magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) that describe the conservation of plasma
mass, momentum, and energy, as well as the time evolution of the
magnetic field. Over the last few decades significant effort has been
devoted to the development of efficient numerical schemes for solving
the ideal MHD equations, especially in the context of space plasmas.
More recently, there has been increasing interest in incorporating
observational data within SW simulations via data assimilation (DA) to
produce improved space weather forecasts. While the use of DA methods is
a mature field that has proved to be vastly successful in meteorological
applications, its use has seen limited application in heliospheric space
weather forecasting, or MHD modeling in general. In this study, the
results of the assimilation of synthetic plasma observations in
one-dimensional ideal MHD initial value problems are considered. DA
methods are generally divided into two families of approaches:
variational and sequential methods. Both categories of approaches are
examined here with assimilation results presented for the 4DVar and
Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) methods, respectively. Observing system
simulation experiments are performed and the simulation errors obtained
using the 4DVar and EnKF methods, as well as, without the use of DA are
compared. The sensitivity of error reduction to temporal and spatial
observation availability is explored, and the computational costs of
each method are reported. Finally, the challenges associated with
extensions to 3D models are discussed.