UK public health and ecosystem benefits of currently legislated versus
best available emission control measures
Abstract
Past emission controls in the UK have substantially reduced precursor
emissions of health-hazardous fine particles (PM2.5) and nitrogen
pollution detrimental to ecosystems. Still, 79% of the UK exceeds the
World Health Organization (WHO) guideline for annual mean PM2.5 of 5 μg
m-3 and there is no enforcement of controls on agricultural sources of
ammonia (NH3). NH3 is a phytotoxin and an increasingly large contributor
to PM2.5 and nitrogen deposited to sensitive habitats. Here we use
emissions projections, the GEOS-Chem model, high-resolution datasets,
and contemporary relationships between exposure and risk of harm to
assess the potential human and ecosystem health co-benefits in 2030
relative to the present day of adopting legally required or best
available emission control measures. We estimate that present-day annual
adult premature mortality attributable to exposure to PM2.5 is 48,625,
that harmful amounts of reactive nitrogen deposit to almost all (95%)
sensitive habitat areas, and that 75% of ambient NH3 exceeds levels
safe for bryophytes. Legal measures decrease the extent of the UK above
the WHO guideline to 58% and avoid 6,800 premature deaths by 2030. This
improves with best available measures to 36% of the UK and 13,300
avoided deaths. Both legal and best available measures are insufficient
at reducing the extent of damage of nitrogen pollution to sensitive
habitats, as most nitrogen emitted in the UK is exported offshore. Far
more ambitious reductions in nitrogen emissions (>80%)
than is achievable with best available measures (34%) are required to
halve excess nitrogen deposition to sensitive habitats.