Influence of The Madden-Julian Oscillation on Continental United States
Hurricane Landfalls
Abstract
The Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) significantly impacts North Atlantic
hurricanes, with more hurricane activity occurring when the MJO favors
enhanced convection over Africa and the tropical Indian Ocean and
suppressed hurricane activity occurring when the MJO favors enhanced
convection over the tropical Pacific. Using data from 1905-2015, we find
more hurricanes make landfall in the continental US when the MJO
enhances convection over the tropical Indian Ocean. In addition, when
the MJO enhances convection over the Western Hemisphere, tropical
cyclones tend to form in the Gulf of Mexico or the Caribbean, leading to
more Gulf Coast landfalls. As the MJO moves to the Indian Ocean, more
storms form in the tropical Atlantic, increasing the number of Florida
and East Coast landfalls. The MJO’s modulation of tropical cyclone
steering winds appears to be secondary to its effects on genesis
locations.