Abstract
Predictive modelling is fundamental to ecology and essential for
objective biodiversity assessment. However, while predictive
biodiversity models are generally well-developed,
models for predicting patterns
within and among ecosystems have not been adequately
operationalized. We contend the
scarcity of such models marks a concerning gap in the scientific
community’s ability to make ecosystem predictions across landscapes, and
more broadly for supporting the conservation of biodiversity and
ecosystem functions. We propose ecosystem spatial pattern models (ESPM)
to fill this gap in modelling capacity. Under our approach to ESPM,
spatial patterns of ecosystem properties are the basis for resolving
ecosystem organization at local and landscape extents. Our integrative
modelling framework differs from others in that it accords biotic and
abiotic constituents equally, based on with their joint mechanistic
influence on ecosystem dynamics. Development of ESPM is especially
timely for ecosystem assessment is undergoing a contemporary
groundswell, as scientists and conservation groups propose ambitious
targets for ecosystem conservation and restoration.