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Costa Rica Rainfall in Future Climate Change Scenarios
  • Rodrigo Castillo,
  • Jorge Amador,
  • Ana María Durán
Rodrigo Castillo
Universidad de Costa Rica Facultad de Ciencias

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Jorge Amador
Universidad de Costa Rica Facultad de Ciencias
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Ana María Durán
Universidad de Costa Rica Facultad de Ciencias
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Abstract

Studies of intraseasonal and annual cycles of meteorological variables, using projections of climate change, are nowadays extremely important to improve regional socio-economic planning for countries. This is particularly true in Costa Rica, as Central America has been identified as a climate change hot spot. Today many of the economic activities in the region, especially those related to agriculture, tourism and hydroelectric power generation are linked to the seasonal cycle of precipitation. Changes in rainfall (mm/day) and in the diurnal temperature range ($^{\circ}$C) for the periods 1970-1999 and 2070-2099 were investigated using the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) constructed using the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project version 5) data. Differences between the multi-model ensembles of the two prospective scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the retrospective baseline scenario were computed. This study highlights Costa Rica as an inflexion point of the climate change in the region and also suggests an early onset of the rainy season and future drying conditions.