The Polar Cap (PC) index: invalid index series and a different approach.
Abstract
The Polar Cap (PC) indices are derived from the magnetic variations
generated by the transpolar convection of magnetospheric plasma and
embedded magnetic fields driven by the interaction with the solar wind.
The PC indices are potentially very useful for Space Weather monitoring
and forecasts and for related research. However, the PC index series in
the near-real time and final versions endorsed by the International
Association for Geomagnetism and Aeronomy (IAGA) are considered
unreliable. Both versions include solar wind sector (SWS) effects in the
calculation of the reference levels from which magnetic disturbances are
measured. The SWS effects are caused by current systems in the dayside
Cusp region related to the Y-component, B, of the Interplanetary
Magnetic Field (IMF). However, the IAGA-endorsed handling of SWS effects
may generate unfounded PC index changes of up to 3 mV/m at the nightside
away from the Cusp. For the real-time PCN and PCS indices, the cubic
spline-based reference level construction may cause additional
unjustified index excursions of more than 3 mV/m with respect to the
corresponding final index values. Noting that PC index values above 2
mV/m indicate geomagnetic storm conditions, such unjustified
contributions are considered to invalidate the IAGA-endorsed PC index
series. Alternative derivation methods are shown to provide more
consistent index reference levels for both final and real-time PC
indices, to reduce their unfounded excursions, and to significantly
increase their reliability.